Democrats have the edge in the fight for Senate control.

Updated October 30, 2026 · Senate inputs through October 30, 2026; Governor inputs through October 18, 2026 · statewide polls through October 30, 2026 · Senate simulation from October 30, 2026: 50,000 draws

Expected Democratic caucus51.7

Expected Republicans48.3

See full Senate forecast

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo 2026 race

Projected two-party margin if the election were held today. Select any loaded state to open its race page. Source: COYNTOSS Senate model.

Five closest Senate races

Full race board

Five closest 2026 Senate races, ordered by projected two-party margin
State	Model margin	Rating	Race details
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The Senate forecast, over time

How the Senate forecast has moved

This Senate tracker includes later reconstructions, not forecasts published on the dates shown. Original releases remain archived; the chart identifies reconstructed points.

Senate forecast history

Chance of controlling the Senate, by model release

The closest races

Open House forecast

80.5%Democratic chance

19.5%Republican chance

236.2 expected Democratic seats 198.8 expected Republican seats

Median seats: 235
80% range: 210–265
For majority: 218

Closest districts

D+15 to R+15

District	Margin	Rating
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The closest House races

Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R

All 435 district estimates and the House control simulation use the October 18, 2026 model · polls through October 14, 2026 · run V0.25-20261018-S20261018

Frozen forecast snapshot

Forecast inputs: Senate 2026-10-30 and Governor 2026-10-18 · House model 2026-10-18 · 35 Senate races · 36 governor races · 435 House districts.

Senate control: Democratic caucus 70.85%; Republicans 29.15%. Expected seats: 51.66 Democratic caucus and 48.34 Republican senators; median 52, 10th–90th percentile 49–54. Frozen simulation: October 30, 2026 (50,000 runs; RETRO-20261030-R11).

House control: Democrats 80.54%; Republicans 19.46%. Expected seats: 236.18 Democratic and 198.82 Republican (simulation means); median 235 Democratic, 10th–90th percentile 210–265. Frozen House simulation: October 18, 2026 (10,000 runs; V0.25-20261018-S20261018).

State	Rating	Projected margin
Iowa	Toss-up	R+0.8
Texas	Toss-up	D+1.3
Kansas	Toss-up	R+1.4
Maine	Toss-up	D+1.8
Alaska	Toss-up	D+1.9
Ohio	Tilt D	D+2.4
Michigan	Lean D	D+4.5
Nebraska	Lean R	R+4.6
South Carolina	Lean R	R+4.7
Florida	Likely R	R+6.1

Democrats have the edge in the fight for Senate control.

The interactive 2026 Senate and governor forecast map

Five closest Senate races

The closest races

Democrats are favored to win House control.

The closest House races